Short Term Football Spread Betting Predictions
If you’re not already familiar with spread betting here’s a straight forward cricket example by way of introduction. We’ll use the Summer 2018 England vs India test series as our vehicle to introduce the principles, terms and math of cricket spread betting. Markets can be divided into two broad categories; (i) Short Term Singular Events (such ‘Total Runs’ in a particular innings, which is The Market) or (ii) Longer Term Markets that incorporate a group of Singular Events (i.e. Total Runs in the entire test series).
For example, it is the first test of the England v India series at Edgbaston, Joe Root has won the toss and elected to bat first. The Market is Total 1st Innings Runs for England. The Price (or Spread) is set at 350-375 runs. If your prediction is that the batsmen will dominate and England will score more than 375 runs you Buy, if you think the Indian bowlers will get the upper hand and restrict England to less than 350 runs you Sell at 350.
You decide to buy goals at 375 for £1. This makes every run worth £1. However England have to score more than 375 runs for you to start making a profit. Unfortunately, Shami, Sharma and Ashwin get into England’s batsmen early and restrict England to 287. So not only does Kohli ‘drop the mic’ on Joe Root you lose with the final position, or Make-Up 287 runs. Therefore you lose (375 – 287) x £1, so £88.
If, however, you had decide to sell England’s runs at 350, you would have made a tidy profit. As England finished with 287 runs you would have won (350 – 287) x £1, i.e. £63. Of course the more you stake, the more you stand to win or lose – that is why staking policy is important and you need to figure out a rough idea of best and worst case before you place the bet. Remember teams have been known to get 600 runs or be skittled for less than a hundred so be sure to know your risks and upside before trading. Keeping stakes smaller helps mitigate those risks.
The advantage of spread betting is that it is also often traded “In-running” meaning that you can open or close positions at any time to maximize gains or reduce losses. Therefore if you had bought runs, with England going well and Root 80 not out you could have probably taken a profit at some point before Virat dropped the mic on him …..but of course timing (and hindsight!) are wonderful things.
Long Term Cricket Spread Betting Predictions
The most interesting thing about longer term markets, multi-team tournaments and series is that there is often plenty of cricket history to refer to and learn from (100 years’ worth in fact!) …… and it is often a great predictor of present and future events. At FBT we look for patterns in history and use that data as one of our criteria to assess the betting odds and spreads on offer for current sporting events. http://www.espncricinfo.com/ and http://cricketarchive.com/ are great for these purposes although unfortunately the latter now requires a subscription. Using these tools, let’s take another example from the recent England v India Test Series.
Spread betting companies will offer a wide range of markets before the series starts usually referred to as Series Markets where the prices represent events that occur over all 5 tests such as total number of sixes, number of wides or batsmen ‘Ton Ups’ (that is the total number of runs scored above all batsmen across all 5 test matches. Let’s take the ‘Ton Ups’ market as our next example. The companies set the price at 440-460. That means approximately 90 per test match. So if two batsmen score 123 and 146 respectively in a match, the make up for that one test is 23 + 46 or 69. That would be a little below the required number for that test match, but of course there are 5 tests so if you bought the situation could still be recovered and if you had sold you’re happy.
Let’s say you sold at 440 (as tibaBet’s free cricket prediction recommend based upon history – see the rationale later in the cricket resources pages). The make-up (which you can find incidentally at https://www.sportingindex.com/results and looking for cricket results between 7th and 9th September series markets) was 262. Therefore if you had sold for £1 at 440 your profit would have been (440 – 267) x £1 or £173. Conversely, had you bought at 460 your loss would have been (460-267) x £1 or £193. To explain why we recommended a sell on Ton-ups we can refer to some of FBTs ‘home grown’ tools as explained below.
Why suggest a Ton-ups sell cricket prediction
As mentioned earlier, the spread betting companies had set Batmen Series Ton-up at 440-460’ for the 5 test series. As punters, we could have used intuition, gut feel or guesswork to make a prediction. The weather was set fair for the summer, the best batsman in the world was in town and Indian bowlers were unproven in English conditions where spin is less of a factor than good seam bowling. You might ask why a ton-up sell was therefore recommended. The answer is that at FBT we prefer to use data, history and logic to inform our decision. Let’s take a look at the graphic below and we’ll explain what we do.
You will see from the above table a list of all the key spread betting make-ups going back over the past four tests played at a given venue in England, with the most recent test first. With four of the venues listed being visited in the 5 test series we have some recent history to go on. As you can see, the total Ton-Ups across 7 (yes SEVEN) test matches only came to 110. Our spread for only 5 test matches was set at 440-460. Even going back over Tests 1, 2 and 3 in less recent history 450 was never exceeded. Therefore even with king Virat Kohli in town, reaching that total was never likely based upon history. Of course it was always possible with the weather set fair, but statistically the odds were significantly in our favor. That is why we sold and recommended a sell in our free cricket tips.
So just one of our cricket predictions netted a significant profit, with what we believe was relatively low risk with the correct staking policy. This is a prime example of the process we use at FBT to arrive at our free cricket tips. The typical steps involved are, record, research, analyse, assess (risk), scale (for staking and go/ no-go decision) and publish. The table above of course is replicated for all the major test playing nations around the world, South Africa, Australia, India, the West Indies and New Zealand etc. The graphic below is a reminder of how we use this data to underpin our cricket tipping process.
At FBT we have the entire history for all the major cricket playing nations and of course supplement that with other useful data sources already mentioned. It’s this level of detail that informs our cricket predictions. Our clients don’t need to see the entire tipping process play out every time, but just receive the fruits of the process. With forecasts across all the major cricketing events as well as all the global T20 tournaments, there’s always something to explore. Take a look at our cricket resources page for other useful cricket prediction tools or go straight to our Cricket Tips page now for live updates and prices.