Resources for Cricket Betting
In order to deliver our cricket predictions, FBT uses a number of resources and data files. It is this unique combination of historical data, real time news feeds and statistical analysis that allows us to arrive at cricket predictions that are loaded in our favor. Whilst some of our tools and data is proprietary, much of the information we use to assess spreads and fixed odds value is openly available on the internet. To introduce some of the concepts we employ to arrive at our best cricket tips we’ll look at some examples and how the tools are used. As we’ve said previously, history is a great predictor of future behavior in many walks of life – cricket betting is no different.
Let’s take a recent example of the 10th edition of the IPL in India. A total of 60 matches are played including the group games, eliminators and final all played within 6 weeks. In 2017, Sporting Index had set an aggregate total Run Outs market for all 60 matches at 59-61 at start of the tournament, or approximately 1 per match. However, 20 matches into the tournament there had only been 10 run outs so the price had dropped to 49-51.
At FBT we decided to explore the behavior of certain markets in 10 match blocks to see how events unfolded throughout the tournament (see graphic below). By splitting the tournament into 10 match blocks we wanted to see if patterns emerged during the tournament and whether those patterns were consistent across previous editions of the tournament. We found something interesting. More run outs seemed to occur towards the end of the tournament with far fewer in the early matches. Therefore we felt a buy of run-outs after 20 games was probably a very safe cricket tip we could give out. Particularly when looking back over the final make-ups of previous tournaments which had rarely come below 59.
Here is where we utilize our useful data sources to look at previous history. Previous results and scorecards can be found here amongst other places https://www.iplt20.com/results. Below is an extract we created for the first 22 matches of the 2017 IPL edition (of course we have every match in our database). What you will see is that only 10 run outs had occurred after 20 matches. We actually track all 60 games of every recent IPL edition and in every case run-outs came in at over 59 for the tournament and in some cases above 70. Therefore a buy at 51 seemed in our favor.
Indeed, as the tournament progressed the number of run outs per game steadily increased and the final make-up was 59 run outs, giving us a profit of 8x our stake. The reasons behind this increase in the moving average as the tournament goes deeper may be numerous. Perhaps teams start taking more risks as they push for wins, perhaps the pitches get harder to bat on as they age or perhaps players have adjusted to conditions better. The point is, we really don’t care. The fact is that we’ve observed this pattern over a number of IPL T20 tournaments so have a reasonable sample size. Therefore, as we know happens over time, we buy run outs towards the middle part of the tournament and sit back and take the profits ….. it is not a linear market and we take advantage of that.
As you can see from the above table we also track a number of other IPL T20 markets such as Total Sixes, Total Wides, 50 ups (runs scored above 50), Total number of 4’s and match results etc. Furthermore, we can filter on individual teams and grounds (pitches) to see typical make-ups of different markets in those conditions and then play short term individual games as well. The same type of analysis can be completed for batsmen’s runs, bowler’s performances and many other cricket predictions. The data can also be directly used to evaluate fixed odds cricket markets, which is exactly what we do when we provide fixed odds tips.
Using Test Venue History to our advantage
This ability to look back at history and find any test match or ODI played in the last 100 years is vital for predicting the future. Although the system is not fool-proof (pitches, teams and playing behavior of course change over time) we are only looking for an edge, that’s all. If we look at enough data we will always discover betting value and that is what we’re after at FBT. Take some analysis from a couple of years ago on South Africa’s Test Match history. To come up with some free cricket tips we analysed all tests played at South African stadia going back a few years (we used http://www.espncricinfo.com/ and http://cricketarchive.com/ to get the data). We pick some of the most common Series Spread Betting markets (Total Wides, Sixes, Run outs, Ton ups etc) and mapped it out as below.
As you can see we’re able to total up the results across many of the venues and look for any anomalies. We’ve highlighted one in yellow. That is Total Series Wides. The spread betting companies had set them at 23-26 for a four match series in South Africa. As you can see in the most recent set of test matches in the country we averaged 10 per game, the group before that 14 and then just over 11. As such, for 4 test matches we might expect a spread around 35-37 or something similar. So trusty FBT suggested a buy of Wides and a considerable profit ensued.
Without http://www.espncricinfo.com/ and http://cricketarchive.com/ and the historical results, this type of analysis would not be possible. As you will see from the above graphic, we could track all the events, and although it took time, find that needle of value in the haystack. This needle is what our clients see as a free cricket Tip. The same principles can be applied for match supremacy, forecasting fixed odds cricket match winners, player performances and many other cricket markets. The spreadsheet resource you see above is one of many that FBT has constructed to track different facets of cricket. It is these resources that our clients are benefitting from when they use our services for Cricket predictions. We are happy to share this inside knowledge because if our clients succeed they are more likely to refer us to their friends and family and via Social Media, which is key to our growth. The point is, you don’t need to see the entire process or do all of the work that we do, just simply benefit from the Tips!
Our library of cricket resources cannot be explicitly posted on our site because other cricket tipping sites will take advantage for their advertising and affiliate purposes – not something we wish to promote. However, you are free to contact us and ask for specific data points and if we have them we will share with you for free. We do not make special offers or promotions or even try to benefit financially from our data – other than to underpin our tips. We are a service for the average punter and wish to remain as such. Visit our free Cricket Tips page now and get the latest entries – it could be the start of your profit making relationship with FBT. Happy Cricket Betting and Good Luck – our resources are your resources!