Darts Spread Betting – Expert Guide
For those new to spread betting we like to use an example to get you started. We’ll use a regular week from the darts premier league to introduce the principles, terms and maths of darts spread betting. Darts spread betting Markets can be divided into two broad categories; (i) Short Term Singular Events (such ‘Highest Match Checkout’ in a game, which is The Market) or (ii) Longer Term Markets that incorporate a group of Singular Events (i.e. Total Tournament 180s in the World Championship).
For example, let’s imagine it is the fourth Week of the 2018 PDC Darts Premier league and its Barney vs High Voltage ( Rob Cross ). The Market is Highest Match Checkout for the game. The Price (or Spread) is set at 120-123. If your prediction is that either Barney or Voltage will hit a high checkout you would Buy at 123. if you think a lower combination finish is on the cards you would Sell at 120.
You decide to buy Highest Checkout at 123 for £10. This makes every point worth £10. Although there are no big checkouts in the early legs, Voltage hits a 128 which is not bettered, so the final result, or Make-Up is 128. Therefore you win (128 – 123) x £10, so £50.
If, however, you had decided to sell the highest checkout for the match at 120, you would have made a small loss. As it ended up at 128 lost (128-120) x £10, i.e. -£80. Of course the more you stake, the more you stand to win or lose – that is why staking policy is important and you need to figure out a rough idea of best and worst case before you place darts bets. In this example you know the highest possible make-up is two treble twenties and the bull, or 170. Remember, other markets such as total 180’s can be more volatile so be sure to understand your risks and upside before trading. Keeping stakes smaller helps mitigate those risks for volatile markets.
The advantage of darts spread betting is that it is also often traded “In-running” meaning that you can open or close positions at any time to maximize gains or reduce losses.…..but of course timing is the key in that case.
Longer Term Darts Markets
The most interesting thing about longer term darts markets is that we have history to refer to and learn from previous years …… and it can be a useful predictor of present and future events. However, we caveat that assertion a little for darts as we have noticed an evolution in the game. For example, at FBT we look for patterns in history and use that data as one of our criteria to assess the betting odds and spreads on offer for current sporting events. Take the World Darts Championships for example, the annual darts fest at the Ally Pally (Alexandra Palace) and lets focus on maximum 180s. What we notice is that, generally, players are getting better year-on-year with number of 180s rising every year. This might lead us to continually buy the spread based upon this evidence However, this where we provide a note of caution. The number of tournament 180s in 2016 was 654, followed by 708 in 2017. With the total spread for 2018 set at 690-700, many would have been tempted to buy at 700 given the observation of the yearly trend. Let’s say you bought total 180s at 700 for £10. Interestingly, the number actually drops for 2018 and with a make-up of 654, or back to the 2016 level…. We take a hit (and incidentally at FBT we did). We lose (700 – 654) x £10 or £460. So here is our first lesson in caution: whilst history is a good predictor of the future, it’s not foolproof so exercise caution when considering stakes.
Why we love statistics at FBT
As discussed on our other sports pages, we love to use statistics at FBT, particularly when we make year on year comparisons for darts events. As punters, we could use intuition, gut feel or guesswork to make predictions but that is not how FBT works. Let’s take a look at the database extract below:
As you can see, at FBT we like to track key statistical data points such as leg scores, match averages, checkout percentages and as already discussed 180s. By doing this for every year, we’re able to look for patterns and trends throughout the World championships and other darts majors. Sports spread betting companies have widened the available markets for darts as time has gone on and we now have may options including total missed doubles for example. By using the checkout % stats we’re able to see typical trends and patterns for missed doubles. By scouring the prices for anomalies we are often able to spot errors in how these prices are set. When a pattern is observed over many years we know we are making informed decisions. Of course, the betting companies sometimes make adjustments to their prices based on history also – but on occasion they don’t.
These stats can be applied at both a player level where individual markets are offered or on a match basis. Either way, it gives us the edge when considering which markets to engage in. So using our data we are able to construct darts predictions that net a significant profit with what we believe is low risk with the correct staking policy. This is a prime example of the process we use at FBT to arrive at our free darts tips. The typical steps involved are, record, research, analyse, assess (risk), scale (for staking and go/ no-go decision) and publish. The graphic below is a reminder of how we use this data to underpin our cricket tipping process.
At FBT we have the entire history for all darts tournaments and with the application of other useful data sources like http://www.dartsdatabase.co.uk already mentioned we have a powerful mix of data to work with when making predictions. Our clients don’t need to see the entire darts tipping process in detail, but just receive the benefits and outputs of the process. With forecasts across all the major darting events every televised event can be an exciting profit making opportunity. Take a look at our Darts resources page for our prediction tools or go straight to our Dart Tips page for up to date predictions.