Football Spread Betting Example Short-Term
For those of you that are new to spread betting we’ll start with a simple example to get you into the swing of things. We’ll use the recent World Cup in Russia as our vehicle to introduce the principles, terms and math of soccer spread betting. Markets are usually divided into two categories; (i) Short Term Singular Events (such Total Goals in an individual match) or (ii) Longer Term Markets that incorporate a group of Singular Events (i.e. Total Goals in a Tournament).
For example, it is the World Cup final between France and Croatia and the Market is Total Goals for the match. The Price (or Spread) is set at 1.9-2.1 goals. If your prediction is that there will be more than 2.1 goals you Buy, if you think there will be less than 1.9 you Sell.
You decide to buy goals at 2.1 for £100. This makes every goal worth £100. However, you have to get more than 2.1 goals to start making a profit. Fortunately, it finished 4-2 to France with the Make-Up 6 goals. Therefore, you make (6 – 2.1) x £100, so £390.
If, however, you decided to sell goals at 1.9, once the game had 2 goals you were losing money. Unfortunately, as it finished with 6 goals you would have lost (6 – 1.9) x £100, i.e. £410.
The advantage of spread betting is that it is often traded “In-running” meaning that you can open or close positions at any time to maximize gains or limit losses.
Football Spread Betting Predictions Long-Term
The most interesting thing about longer term markets and tournaments is that there is often plenty of history to refer to and learn from …… and history is often a great predictor of present and future events. At FBT we look for patterns in history and use that data as one of our criteria to assess the betting odds and spreads on offer for current sporting events. Let’s take another example from the recent World Cup. A group of markets many sports spread betting companies offer are referred to as ‘Stop at a XXXX’ where XXXX is a particular event. Basically, they are offering soccer predictions regarding the time an event will occur in the tournament. For example, they might set the spread for ‘Stop a Converted Penalty’ at 5-6. They are effectively forecasting that a penalty will be scored around the 5th and 6th game of the tournament.
With 64 games in the tournament, the Maximum Make-Up is 65 if no penalty is scored in any game (they add 1 to the total for some reason) and the Minimum Make-Up is 1, i.e. a penalty is scored in the first game. Our job is to predict in which game we think the first penalty will be scored and ‘Buy or Sell’ accordingly …. If we think it will be before the 5th match we would sell at 5, if we think it will be after the 6th match we would buy. To explain, let’s use an actual example from the recent world cup where we used ‘history’ to predict the future and make a large profit.
World Cup Football ‘Stop at an Own Goal’ Example
The spread betting companies had set ‘Stop at an Own Goal’ at 15-16 for the 64 game tournament. As punters, we could have used intuition, gut feel or guesswork to make a prediction. You might even ask how this can be predicted as it’s such a random betting event. However, at FBT we prefer to use data to inform our decision. Let’s take a look at the graphic below and we’ll explain what we do.
|Stop at a …||Sell Price||1998||2002||2006||2010||2014||2018||AVG|
You will see from the above that beneath each Year we have recorded the Make-Up of the first Own Goal, i.e. in which match did it occur in that World Cup. To the right of that number we show the ‘delta’ or profit/loss you would have incurred had you sold at the current price on offer (in this case with a spread of 15-16 that sell price is 15). It can easily be seen that only once in the previous five World Cups did an own goal occur after the 15th match and that was in 2002. Even then, it occurred in the 16th match.
Furthermore, if you look at the farthest right column (the average) you will see that the event occurred, on average, in the 6th match of the previous 5 world cups. With this data on hand, the odds would appear to be wrong and a spread of 15-16 significantly higher than it should be. So at FBT we sold at 15 for £100 before the tournament started, hoping for an O.G before the 15th match to make a profit. What happened? Look at this clip from the 3rd match of the tournament between Iran and Morocco……
As you see from the above, the make-up was 3, netting us a profit of (Sell Price – Make-Up) x £100, or (15 – 3) x £100 or £1200. Our updated table now looks like this:
|Stop at a …..||Sell Price||1998||2002||2006||2010||2014||2018||AVG|
So just one of our football tips netted significant profit, with what we think was very little risk. This is a prime example of the process we use at FBT to arrive at our football predictions. The typical steps involved are, record, research, analyse, assess (risk), scale (for staking and go/ no-go decision) and publish. The graphic below is a reminder of that process.
Of course, this was not the only ‘Stop at a …. Market’ offered by the spread betting companies. Between Sporting Index and Spreadex (the two main players) there were many other markets we traded on (and profited from). A small selection from Sporting are below:
At FBT we have the entire history for all 10 markets. It’s this level of detail that informs our tips. Our clients don’t need to see the entire process play out every time we make a soccer prediction, but just receive the fruits of the process. With forecasts across the major European Leagues as well as some global soccer markets, there’s always something to explore. Take a look at our soccer resources page for other useful football prediction tools or go straight to our Soccer Tips page now for live updates.