Golf Spread Betting Expert Guide

Golf Spread Betting Expert Guide

If you’re not already familiar with golf spread betting we’d like to introduce the concept with a few simple examples by way of introduction. We’ll use a regular weekly tour event as our vehicle to introduce the ideas, terms and mathematics of golf spread betting.  Markets are broadly divided into two main categories; (i) Short Term Singular Events (such ‘Player ‘Xs’ Finishing Position’ within a tour event, which is The Market) or (ii) Longer Term Markets that incorporate a group of Singular Events (i.e. Total Multi-Holes for the Ryder Cup – explained later).

For example, it is the Masters at Augusta 2018 and you have a strong feeling that Jordan Spieth will put his 2016 meltdown behind him.  A typical Market offered every week for all tournaments is ‘Players Finishing Positions). The concept is simple, if you thing the player will do well, you would ‘sell’ his finishing position, if you think he will do badly you would ‘buy’ it. For the 2018 masters, Jordan is set at 27-30 which means the bookmaker expects Jordan to finish somewhere between 27th and 30th.  The market is therefore ‘Jordan Spieth Finishing Position and the Price (or Spread) is set at 27-30. As your prediction is that he will do well you would Sell at 27 (if you thought he was going to perform badly you would buy at 30).

You decide to sell his finishing position at 27 for £10. This makes every position worth £10. Fortunately, although Jordan doesn’t win – the Green Jacket honor was enjoyed to the rather excitable Patrick Reed – you still turn a tidy profit as Jordan manages to grab 3rd place meaning that the market Make-Up is 3. Therefore you win (27 – 3) x £10, so £240.

If, however, you had decided to buy Jordan at 30,  you would have made a loss. As he finished 3rd you would have lost (3 – 30) x £10, i.e. -£270. Of course the more you stake, the more you stand to win or lose – that is why staking policy is important and you need to figure out a rough idea of best and worst case before you place golf bets. Remember, markets can sometimes be volatile so be sure to understand your risks and upside before trading. Keeping stakes smaller helps mitigate those risks. 

The advantage of spread betting is that it is also often traded “In-running”  meaning that you can open or close positions at any time to maximize gains or reduce losses. Therefore if you bought Jordan’s finishing position and he had a bad first round you could still have taken a profit even though he ended up 3rd.…..but of course timing (and hindsight!) are wonderful things.

Long-Term Golf Bets

To be honest there are relatively few long term golf bets to take advantage of with most of the focus on singular events. There are Fedex cup markets, major performances indices for individual players and of course the Ryder cup, but markets are limited. For this reason we have to be even more selective when posting Tips.

Spread betting companies generally break Golf Spreads into three categories:  (i) One off tournament event markets, (ii) LongerTerm performance type markets Let’s use Ryder Cup golf Betting for our next example. The companies will quote a market such as ‘ Tournament Multi-holes’ which is an aggregate of the match results. For example a single match finishing 3 & 2 (i.e. 3 up with two holes to play ) would count as 6 points. You would then add this up for all 28 matches in that year’s Ryder Cup. Typically, this price would be set around 145-150.  Therefore, if you felt there were going to be a number of ‘blowouts’ in the event with either side dominating matches regularly you would buy as the ‘multi-hole’ make up is likely to be large in that case. However, if you believed the tournament was going to be characterized by many tight matches going down to the 17th & 18th holes you would be inclined to sell.

For example, let’s say you sold for £10 at 145 and the make-up for all 28 matches totaled 134, your profit would be (145-134) x £10 or £110. Conversely, had you bought at 150 your losses would be (150 – 134) x £10, or £160.  Bets like these can not only be profitable but highly entertaining as generally every shot counts for all 28 matches. A lot of fun can be had and if the stakes are small enough will low risk. Critically, you also have the resources at sites such as https://www.rydercup.com/  & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ryder_Cup_matches to look at history and make more informed decisions about markets like this.

Using our data, golf forecasts can net significant profits on a consistent basis, with what we believe is very low risk with the correct staking policy for our Golf Tips. This is  a prime example of the process we use at FBT to arrive at our Golf predictions. The typical steps involved are, record, research, analyse, assess (risk), scale (for staking and go/ no-go decision) and publish. The graphic below is a reminder of how we use this data to underpin our cricket tipping process.

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At FBT we have the entire history for all the majors and tour events and with the application of other useful data sources as described above we have a powerful mix of data to work with when making predictions. Our clients don’t need to see the entire tipping process play out every time, but just receive the fruits of the process.  With forecasts across all the major tour events golf is made more exciting and profitable.  Take a look at our Golf resources page for other useful prediction tools or go straight to our Golfing Tips page for any current suggestions.