Whilst we would like to claim we do all the work for tracking NFL stats at FBT, quite frankly that would be a lie. We let others do the heavy lifting for us and the primary source of data is www.nfl.com. That’s not to say we don’t work with that data, as you’d expect from FBT – we dissect the data available to us in order to make our predictions. American Football is one of the most statistically driven sports on the planet and copious amounts of data are available at both player and team level. The secret – in betting terms at least – is to work out what is useful for us and how we can apply it to the NFL forecasting process for our NFL Picks.
Let’s take a recent example of the NFL preseason markets offered by Sporting Index. These included Total Season Touchdowns, Total Season Sacks, Total Defensive Touchdowns by one team amongst others. At FBT we knew historical data would be available somewhere on NFL.com and as expected we were able to get full historical data at: NFL.com you’ll see an extract below:
So what we have is an entire history of team touchdowns, split by receiving and rushing. Additionally we have defensive touchdowns by team. Mapping this data over a number of years is extremely useful when we want to analyse the markets on offer. However, in order to use this nfl.com data, FBT extracts it to create a historic view by season to look for patterns. Please refer to the database we created below:
As an example, let’s look at the market for total season touchdowns that Sporting Index posted at the start of the season. The price for Total Season Touchdowns was set at 1268-1298. If we looked at the previous year of 2017, we might immediately jump to the conclusion that this was too high, after all, if we were to buy we’d need to get 73 more touchdowns in 2018 to reach the 2017 number. Not a good move you might think with a sell the better option. However, this is where we need to overlay other information into our analysis. Let’s take the NFL’s new points of emphasis for the 2018 season for example. With a targeted search, we can find what they are here: https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/2018-rules-changes-and-points-of-emphasis/ . Whilst there are a number of rule changes or points of emphasis, three in particular caught our eye. Firstly, there is the new ‘Helmet Rule’ this essentially says that leading with the helmet in almost any circumstances will result in a 15 year penalty. Secondly, there is the new ‘definition of a catch’, which essentially says that the receiver no longer has to maintain full control of the ball throughout the catch as long as it’s secured at some point. Finally, there will be an emphasis to ensure that illegal contact (generally made by defenders) will be enforced more forcefully.
If we look at these rules they are all designed, in our opinion to, assist offenses and protect the safety of offensive players – particularly the quarterback. With this mind we expect many more drives to be extended by penalty and through more lenient definition of what constitutes a catch. We therefore recommended a buy of season touchdowns at 1298.
Let’s take a look at defensive markets
As you can see from the above we are also able to track a number of offense related markets such as Touchdown and points scored. Now let’s change focus and take a look at some defensive markets, in particular the number of Sacks a team combines for. Look at the highlighted column in the table below:
With this level of detail available for any NFL season, it’s very easy to see who the most active D’s are in the NFL. Every NFL game has markets set for Total Team Sacks and total match sacks. This data is extremely important for evaluating those spreads and fixed odds markets. You will also see from the above that there are numerous defensive indicators such as interceptions, penalties conceded, safties etc. We use this data as our primary source for predicting these types of markets.
Without nfl.com, this type of analysis would not be possible. As you will see from the above extracts, we can track all the team and player statistics, and although it took time, find that needle of value in the haystack. This needle is what our clients see as a free NFL Tip. The same principles can be applied for match forecasting, predicting fixed odds picks, player performances and many other NFL markets. The spreadsheet resource you see above is one of many that FBT has constructed to track different facets of the NFL. It is these resources that our clients are benefitting from when they use our services. We are happy to share this inside knowledge, because if our clients succeed they are more likely to refer us to their friends and family and via Social Media, which is key to our growth. The point is, you don’t need to see the entire process or do all of the work that we do, just simply benefit from the Tips!
Our library of NFL data cannot be explicitly posted on our site because other tipping sites may take advantage for their advertising and affiliate purposes – not something we wish to promote. However, you are free to contact us and ask for specific data points and if we have them we may share them with you depending on the request. We do not make special offers or promotions or even try to benefit financially from our data – other than to underpin our tips. We are a service for the average punter and wish to remain as such. Visit our NFL Tips page now and get the latest entries – it could be the start of your profit making relationship with FBT. Happy NFL Betting and Good Luck – our resources are your resources!